A retirement calculator estimates the size of your future nest egg and the monthly income that balance can sustainably support. This calculator estimates retirement readiness using a starting balance, monthly contributions, expected return, and years to retirement, expressed as a projected portfolio value plus a 4%-rule monthly withdrawal. Type your numbers in, read the answer in seconds.
Most US households are behind. The Federal Reserve's 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances reports a median retirement-account balance of roughly $87,000 for households aged 55 to 64 (per the Federal Reserve, 2023), well below the 8x to 10x ending salary that Fidelity and most planners suggest by that age. Translating that gap into a plan is what this tool exists for.
The projection treats your savings as one combined portfolio. Contribute the total monthly amount across all accounts (401k, employer match, IRA, taxable brokerage), pick a conservative real return (around 6 to 7 percent for a balanced portfolio), and the output is your projected balance at the chosen retirement age plus a sustainable monthly withdrawal under the Trinity Study's 4 percent safe-withdrawal rate. Three things the model deliberately omits: inflation (use a real, after-inflation return), sequence-of-returns risk (a bad first decade of withdrawals hurts more than the average suggests), and Social Security (project your portfolio independently, then layer SSA income on top using your personalized SSA estimate).
Key takeaway
The hardest retirement-planning question isn't "how much will I have?", it's "is that enough?" The 4% rule answers it: divide your final balance by 25 to get the sustainable annual withdrawal. A $1M nest egg supports about $40,000/year (~$3,333/month) without depleting principal under historically-typical market conditions. If your projected withdrawal falls short of your expected expenses, the lever with the highest impact is time, not return rate. Working two more years compounds harder than chasing higher returns.
How it's calculated
The projection compounds monthly using the future-value-of-annuity formula:
FV = P × (1 + i)^n + C × ((1 + i)^n − 1) / i
Where:
- P is your current savings balance
- C is your monthly contribution
- i is the monthly rate (annual rate / 12)
- n is the number of months until retirement
The 4% rule applies the Trinity Study's safe withdrawal rate: historical data shows that withdrawing 4% of the starting balance in year one (then adjusting for inflation thereafter) survived a 30-year retirement under worst-case sequence-of-returns scenarios. The output is final_balance × 0.04 / 12, a monthly figure for direct comparison to expected expenses.
Two big assumptions: (1) returns are constant year-to-year (real markets are volatile, especially around retirement), and (2) contributions are constant in nominal dollars (most people raise contributions over time as salaries grow). Both bias the projection conservatively in different directions, so treat the output as an order-of-magnitude estimate.
Source: Future-value-of-annuity formula with monthly compounding, FV = P(1+i)^n + C × ((1+i)^n − 1) / i
Examples
35yo with $50K, contributing $1,000/month for 30 years at 7%
- Current retirement savings $50,000
- Monthly contribution $1,000
- Current age 35
- Retirement age 65
- Expected annual return 7%
A 35-year-old with $50,000 saved and $1,000/month going in for 30 years at 7% retires at 65 with about $1.63M. That supports about $5,420/month under the 4% rule, comfortable retirement income for most US households. Of the final balance, $410,000 is contributions and $1.22M is investment growth, three-quarters of your nest egg comes from compounding, not deposits.
Catch-up scenario: 50yo with $200K, contributing $2,500/month for 15 years
- Current retirement savings $200,000
- Monthly contribution $2,500
- Current age 50
- Retirement age 65
- Expected annual return 7%
Starting later requires saving harder. $200K at age 50 plus $2,500/month for 15 years at 7% reaches $1.36M, comparable to the early-starter scenario despite contributing $240,000 more in total. The 15-year horizon doesn't give compound growth enough time to do the heavy lifting; deposits do most of the work.
Frequently asked questions
How much should I have saved for retirement?
A common rule of thumb is 25× your expected annual retirement expenses (the Rule of 25, derived from the 4% rule). If you expect to spend $60,000 per year, target $1.5M; for $100,000 per year, target $2.5M. Another guideline from Fidelity: 1× salary by 30, 3× by 40, 6× by 50, 8× by 60, 10× by 67. Both are starting points, not exact answers, your number depends on whether you have a pension, expect Social Security, plan to relocate, want to leave an inheritance, etc.
What is the 4% rule and is it still safe?
The 4% rule comes from the 1998 Trinity Study, which found that withdrawing 4% of your starting balance in year one (adjusted for inflation each subsequent year) historically survived 30-year retirements through worst-case market sequences. More recent Morningstar research suggests 3.3–3.5% may be safer for current valuations and longer retirements (40+ years), while a flexible withdrawal strategy (cutting spending in down years) can support 4.5%+. The 4% rule remains a useful planning anchor; treat it as a starting point rather than a guarantee.
Should I count Social Security in my retirement projection?
Social Security typically replaces 30–40% of pre-retirement income for middle earners (less for high earners due to the wage cap). It's not modeled in this calculator because timing and benefit amount depend on your earnings history, claim age (62–70), and Social Security solvency assumptions. A common approach: project your portfolio independently, then add expected Social Security on top when comparing to projected expenses. The SSA Retirement Estimator gives a personalized projection based on your actual earnings record.
What rate of return should I assume?
For long-horizon planning, 6–7% real (after-inflation) is a reasonable conservative number for a balanced (60/40) portfolio, consistent with multi-decade historical data. Aggressive (100% equities) portfolios have averaged closer to 7% real. For projections in nominal dollars (today's prices, ignoring inflation), add ~3% to your real-return assumption. Historical returns aren't guaranteed, actual sequences vary widely, especially over shorter horizons. A 30-year window has historically hit anywhere from 4% to 12% annualized real returns.